AGP Executive Report

Latvian Government Crisis: Prime Minister Evika Siliņa has lost her ruling majority after the Progressives withdrew support, following the weekend firing of Defence Minister Andris Sprūds over how Latvia handled Ukrainian drone incidents; the Progressives now urge President Edgars Rinkēvičs to start talks on a new government, while the opposition says it will push a no-confidence vote. Eastern Flank Defence Push: At a B9 summit in Bucharest, leaders of 14 NATO allies pledged tighter defence cooperation, stressing that repeated airspace breaches by drones show the urgent need to strengthen air and missile defence and protect critical infrastructure. Ukraine Escalation & Sanctions: Russia launched a large-scale drone-and-infrastructure assault across Ukraine, while Zelensky signed two new sanctions decrees targeting Russian firms tied to missile and drone supply chains. EU Justice for Aggression: The EU is set to join the Special Tribunal for the Crime of Russian Aggression, with more countries signing on. Latvia’s Tech & Economy: Latvia’s central bank issued Paybis Europe both a MiCA crypto-asset licence and a PSD2 payment institution licence; meanwhile, a new Latvian AI-use survey shows many people try AI daily, but few firms say it delivers real business value.

Drone Fallout in Latvia: Latvia’s defence leadership is in crisis after two Ukrainian drones hit an oil depot, with Prime Minister Evika Siliņa saying she lost confidence in Defence Minister Andris Sprūds over slow anti-drone response—pushing him to resign and setting up a rapid handover to Colonel Raivis Melnis, who says the priority is adopting Ukraine’s anti-drone know-how fast. NATO Procurement Push: NATO is also trying to speed up counter-drone buying, launching a marketplace pilot so members can contract quickly for systems tailored to real use cases. Russia Clampdown on Media: In Moscow, a court sentenced Dozhd editor Tikhon Dzyadko to eight years in absentia over “fake” war reporting, fining him and banning him from running websites. Eurovision Politics: Vienna’s Eurovision semifinals are underway amid technical complaints and renewed political backlash over Israel’s participation. Sports Doping: Latvia’s Karlis Ozolins was provisionally suspended after testing positive for clostebol.

Bucharest Nine Security Push: NATO’s eastern-flank leaders have kicked off talks in Romania, with Mark Rutte and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy expected—Romania is also floating a regrouping plan focused on countering Russian drones. Latvia’s Drone Fallout: In Riga, the political shockwave from last week’s drone-hit crisis is still spreading: Defence Minister Andris Sprūds resigned after anti-drone systems were judged too slow, and the government is now moving toward a new defence minister nominee, Colonel Raivis Melnis, with “safe sky” and Ukraine-style anti-drone lessons as priorities. Local Governance Clash: The Riga City Council’s water-tower debate turned physical, with members trading shoves and insults over the future of the Gaujas Street tower. EU Justice on Aggression: Andorra and Monaco joined the Special Tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression, bringing the tribunal to 27 countries. Eurovision Tension: Vienna’s Eurovision starts amid boycotts over Israel’s participation and heightened security protests. Sports & Culture: Two Latvian tennis players were provisionally suspended for clostebol; and Paul Dano’s Kremlin-themed film “The Wizard of the Kremlin” is set to open.

Latvia’s Drone Fallout: Latvia’s defence minister Andris Sprūds resigned after Ukrainian drones crossed from Russia and hit fuel storage facilities, exposing how slowly counter-drone systems were deployed and triggering a political blame game inside the government. EU Sanctions on Child Abductions: The EU moved again against Russia-linked officials and centres accused of abducting and forcibly transferring Ukrainian children, with Latvia’s foreign minister calling it identity-destruction under the Genocide Convention. NATO’s Drone Reality Check in Latvia: A major Latvia-Canada exercise is putting ground drones at the centre, while NATO drills keep highlighting the same uncomfortable lesson: unmanned warfare is outpacing readiness. Ukraine Ceasefire Friction: As a US-backed truce expired, Kyiv reported renewed drone attacks over the capital, while Moscow and Kyiv traded accusations of violations. Eurovision in Vienna: The contest begins amid boycott controversy over Israel’s participation, with security concerns and public protests shadowing the opening night.

Defense Shake-Up: Latvia’s Defence Minister Andris Sprūds resigned after two Ukrainian drones, diverted by Russian electronic warfare, crossed into Latvian airspace and hit oil storage facilities in Rēzekne—prompting Prime Minister Evika Siliņa to accuse the government of moving too slowly on anti-drone systems and renewing calls for stronger NATO air defence. Ukraine-Baltic Air Security: Ukraine’s FM Andrii Sybiha says the drones were Ukrainian but misdirected, and he’s offering expert help to Finland and discussing broader airspace protection cooperation with Baltic partners. EU Foreign Policy: In Brussels, EU foreign ministers—joined by Ukraine—backed new sanctions targeting those accused of abducting and forcibly assimilating Ukrainian children, while also weighing pressure over West Bank settlement violence and the wider Middle East crisis. NATO Eastern Flank: Leaders are set to gather for the B9 summit in Bucharest, with Latvia’s Edgars Rinkēvičs among the key figures shaping regional air defence and mobility priorities. Politics at Home: Latvia’s National Alliance leader Ilze Indriksone is pushing for a new “national security leadership,” while the Progressives say the PM is unable to lead but won’t yet leave the coalition. EU Watch: Kaja Kallas dismissed Putin’s “ceasefire” messaging as cynical and rejected the idea of Gerhard Schröder mediating.

Over the last 12 hours, Latvia’s top local security story has been a sudden drone incident tied to the Russia–Latvia border. Multiple reports say foreign unmanned aerial vehicles entered Latvian airspace from Russia early Thursday morning and that two drones crashed in Latgale—one at/near an oil storage facility in Rēzekne, with damage reported to empty oil tanks, and another crash site reported in the region. In response, Latvian authorities issued drone alerts to residents along the border and ordered protective guidance (stay indoors, close windows/doors, avoid suspicious objects). The immediate disruption was also concrete: classes were suspended in Rēzekne (with remote learning in Balvi), and municipal employees were instructed to work remotely in at least one area. The Latvian Defence Minister also indicated NATO Baltic air policing jets were summoned to the site, underscoring the operational seriousness of the incident.

The same cluster of coverage places the event in a broader regional drone environment. Earlier in the reporting window, the Latvian Defence Minister’s framing (as relayed by LSM/Reuters) suggested the drones were “probably launched by Ukraine against targets in Russia,” while noting that Latvia and the other Baltic states have previously said they do not allow their territories/airspace to be used for drone attacks against Russia. The evidence provided here is focused on the Latvian-side impacts (alerts, school closures, crash/damage descriptions) rather than on definitive attribution of responsibility for Thursday’s crashes, so conclusions about who launched the drones remain cautious.

Beyond the Latvia-specific incident, the last 12 hours also show Latvia being pulled into wider security and foreign-policy discussions. Latvia’s foreign ministry is reported as supporting multilateral efforts related to safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, while stopping short of committing to a specific role—framed as readiness to assess Latvia’s opportunities in coordination with allies. In parallel, the coverage includes broader European defense and procurement themes (e.g., drone procurement platforms and EU/defence-related initiatives), though these are more background than immediate Latvia-triggered developments in the provided texts.

In the 12–72 hour band, the news mix adds continuity on two fronts: (1) cyber and sanctions enforcement, including U.S. sentencing of a Latvian hacker tied to a Russian ransomware operation (Karakurt) and (2) Latvia’s cultural/political positioning in Europe, especially around the Venice Biennale. Several articles describe protests and official objections to Russia’s participation, including Latvian involvement and messaging around “Russia go home,” while another item reports the European Commission warning that the Russian pavilion’s operation would violate EU sanctions (with a response deadline). Taken together, the older items reinforce that Latvia’s current news cycle is simultaneously shaped by immediate border security incidents and by ongoing political friction in European institutions.

Overall, the most significant and well-evidenced development in this rolling week is the Thursday morning drone intrusion/crash in Latgale and the resulting emergency measures (alerts and school closures). Other themes—Strait of Hormuz diplomacy, ransomware/cyber accountability, and Venice Biennale sanctions/culture protests—appear as important but more diffuse strands, with the provided evidence showing continuity rather than a single new turning point.

Over the last 12 hours, the most prominent thread in the coverage is security and enforcement, with multiple items tied to the Russia–Ukraine war and to cybercrime. Latvia-related reporting includes the sentencing of a Latvian ransomware negotiator to 102 months in U.S. federal prison for Karakurt extortion attacks, described as a role focused on turning stolen data into pressure and ransom payments rather than initial hacking. The same period also includes broader European security and war-related items: Latvia’s Foreign Minister Baiba Braže welcomed Armenia’s move toward an EU path, while other coverage highlights NATO air policing participation plans (Slovakia’s F-16s for Baltic airspace) and a UK-led “Northern Navies” concept aimed at Russia that explicitly excludes the United States.

A second major cluster in the last 12 hours concerns EU policy implementation and cross-border infrastructure. BirdyChat’s EU-wide messaging launch is framed as an early test case for the Digital Markets Act’s interoperability rules, positioning Latvia-based services as part of a broader effort to make messaging ecosystems more “contestable.” On infrastructure, the EU funding push for Rail Baltica is highlighted as building toward a €23bn scale and emphasizing the need for predictable long-term financing (though the detailed Rail Baltica funding item appears in the last 12 hours, the underlying context is reinforced by older coverage in the 24–72 hour window). Latvia also appears in the aid and policy space with an allocation of EUR 100,000 to support Ukraine via UN monitoring and related funds.

There is also notable continuity in the last 12 hours around Latvia’s domestic political and economic agenda, but the evidence is more fragmented. The minimum wage debate is explicitly mentioned as a political topic, with a separate (older) item describing a proposal to link the minimum wage to a share of the average salary to reduce year-to-year political uncertainty. In the business and finance sphere, Rietumu Banka’s start of implementing U.S. dollar payments via correspondent banking relations with Deutsche Bank is a concrete operational development, while Latvia’s competition enforcement is represented by a Competition Council finding of a prohibited “vertical agreement” leading to fines (with details to be provided later).

Finally, several items in the last 12 hours are “context” rather than direct Latvia policy developments—yet they shape the environment in which Latvia’s security and EU-facing decisions are being made. These include discussion of the Venice Biennale’s political tensions (Russia and Israel pavilion controversies), a supply-chain cyber incident involving compromised Daemon Tools installers, and a broader framing of Western defense lessons from Ukraine (the argument that scalable “working at scale” systems matter more than “perfect” weapons). Because the most recent evidence is spread across many topics rather than concentrated on one Latvia-specific turning point, the overall picture is best read as a busy news cycle combining enforcement (ransomware), EU implementation (DMA interoperability), and ongoing regional security planning.