AGP Executive Report

Latvia Election Shock: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List won a record 42 seats (about 35% of the vote) in Latvia’s Saeima, with turnout at 51.8%—meaning coalition talks are next, but his Western course looks set to continue. Coalition Math: With no outright majority, United List is expected to negotiate with partners such as the National Alliance and New Unity to reach 51 seats, while populists gained ground among Russian-speaking voters. Russia-Ukraine Pressure: The campaign and results were shaped by security fears tied to Russia’s war; Kulbergs pledged continued support for Kyiv and a tough line toward Moscow. Kyiv Under Fire: During German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s solidarity visit, Russia struck Kyiv again, including damage to the Northern Bridge, as Ukraine and Germany announced a $1.5bn deal focused on drones and energy resilience. EU Neighbourhood Tensions: Poland and Romania rejected Ukraine’s push for expanded grain transit and subsidies, keeping pressure on Ukraine’s export options. Culture & Tech Spotlight: Latvia’s Nikolay Shestak won the Astana AI Film Festival Grand Prix with a $450,000 prize for “The First Honest Day.”

Latvia Election: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List won Latvia’s Saeima election with about 35.3–35.4% of the vote, translating into 42 seats out of 100, the strongest post-independence result for a single force; turnout was around 51.8%. Coalition Math: The win is big but not a majority, so Kulbergs must negotiate to form government—likely with parties that cleared the 5% threshold, while one outgoing partner (Union of Greens and Farmers) fell short. Russia & Security: The campaign stayed dominated by fears of Russian hybrid pressure and the war in Ukraine, with Kulbergs signaling continued hard-line policy and high defence spending. EU Budget Fight: Separately, 17 EU leaders including Latvia urged Ireland’s presidency to protect CAP and Cohesion funding from cuts. Belarus Alignment: Belarus President Lukashenko again pledged unconditional loyalty to Putin’s war strategy. Culture & Tech: The Astana AI Film Festival awarded a $450,000 Grand Prix to Latvian filmmaker Nikolay Shestak, highlighting Latvia’s growing creative footprint.

Latvia Election Results: Exit polls and early counting point to a clear win for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist, pro-Ukraine United List in Saturday’s Saeima vote, projected at about 35.6%—with Latvia First around 11.3%, Progressives 11.1%, and Sovereign Power/Young Latvians 10.8%; coalition partners National Alliance (~8.7%) and New Unity (~6.7%) are also expected to clear the 5% threshold, though the final seat math will depend on the official count. Russian Threat & Campaign Mood: The vote played out under heavy security pressure, with warnings of Russian hybrid attacks and fears of escalation shaping turnout and messaging. Turnout Warning: Preliminary figures put turnout at 50.81%, the lowest since independence, raising questions about political engagement. Ukraine War Context: Zelenskyy says Ukraine will step up strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to Moscow’s winter strategy, while insisting it won’t target civilians. EU Budget Fight: 17 EU leaders, including Latvia, urged the Irish EU presidency to protect Cohesion Policy and the CAP from cuts in the 2028–2034 budget talks.

Saeima Election: Latvians vote today for the 15th Saeima, electing 100 MPs for four years, with polling open 08:00–20:00 and turnout already above 25% by midday; President Edgars Rinkēvičs urged voters not to stay home, warning that “someone else decides for you.” Security & Russia: The campaign is dominated by fears of Russian hybrid attacks and drone-related incidents tied to the Ukraine war, with NATO air policing reinforced for the election period and Germany sending Eurofighters to Latvia. Government Stakes: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist United List is leading in polls (around 14–20%), but fragmentation is expected to complicate coalition talks; the pro-Russian Sovereign Power is polling close behind, while most major parties signal they won’t cooperate with it. EU Budget Fight: Separately, 17 EU leaders—including Latvia’s—push back against proposed cuts to the Cohesion Policy and the CAP in the 2028–2034 budget, arguing the policies are vital for competitiveness and food security. Culture & War Narrative: Exiled filmmaker Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Oscar bid drama “Minotaur” tackles conscription and moral compromise in Putin’s war, underscoring how the conflict reshapes society at home.

Saeima Election Under Security Shadow: Latvians vote in the Saeima election on Saturday as Russia-linked drone incursions and broader hybrid threats dominate the campaign; polls point to Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List leading, but fragmentation could complicate coalition talks. Early Voting Momentum: More than 11% of eligible voters had already cast ballots by Friday, with turnout strongest in Vidzeme and Riga, raising expectations for a higher overall participation rate than in 2022. Final Pre-Election Showdown: Party leaders held a last major debate ahead of polling, with results expected early Sunday. Hybrid Threat Warnings: Ukraine’s intelligence says Russia plans to intensify sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and drone incidents across EU and NATO states—an issue Latvia is watching closely. Baltic Air-Defence Drills: NATO tested a new air defence framework over Lithuania and Latvia, including a U.S. Air Force B-1B bomber, as the alliance integrates drones and missile threats into one posture. EU Budget Fight: Seventeen EU countries, including Latvia, pushed back against cuts to farm and cohesion spending, setting up a confrontation with Germany-led reduction demands.

Saeima Election Watch: Latvia heads to the Oct. 3 parliamentary vote with security and the cost-of-living front and center; CVK says preparations are “pleasantly smoothly,” with 115,836 already voting in advance (7.44%). Election Security: State Police chief Armands Ruks says readiness is heightened for possible provocations, including threatening emails, though no specific threats are confirmed. Rail Baltica Cost Fight: The government sets a cap of 20 million euros per kilometre for Rail Baltica’s main line, after earlier estimates of 28–32 million, as Kulbergs warns the project’s cost growth has been driven by shifting specifications. Latvia-Russia Tensions: Coverage highlights Latvia’s election backdrop shaped by Russia’s hybrid threat and pro-Russian parties competing for influence. Crypto Regulation: Latvijas Banka issues MiCA crypto-asset licences to Atrya Technologies and Noah LV, and a payment licence to Neverless, expanding Latvia’s regulated crypto market. EU Budget Bargaining: Seventeen EU states, including Latvia, push to protect cohesion policy and the CAP ahead of the next EU budget talks. International Security: NATO integrates a US B-1B into Baltic air defence drills over Lithuania and Latvia, while Putin again warns of nuclear response tied to Kaliningrad.

Latvia Election Watch: Latvians head to the polls on Oct. 3 with Russia’s threat dominating the campaign. Reuters says Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ pro-Ukraine United List leads in polling, but coalition-building looks tough as voters weigh airspace incursions, hybrid sabotage fears, and the cost of living. Language & Media Rules: The Saeima approved amendments restricting Russian-language content on public broadcasters to emergencies, state of exception, or targeted debunking of disinformation—approved 55-24, effective Jan. 1, 2027. NATO/Defense Signals: Germany’s Eurofighters have been deployed to Latvia’s Lielvārde base amid drone incursions and election security concerns, while Latvia’s leaders stress hybrid threats over nuclear rhetoric. Hybrid War Debate: Estonia’s FM Margus Tsahkna urged Europe to stop calling sabotage “hybrid attacks,” arguing it amounts to war and needs coordinated attribution. EU Sanctions Fallout: Ukraine says it will respond to the EU delisting of oligarchs Usmanov and Fridman by targeting 20-plus Russians with new sanctions. Markets: European stocks slid as bond yields hit multi-year highs; Latvian government bond yields averaged 3.8% in September.

Saeima Election Watch: Latvia’s Saeima vote is already drawing early turnout, with at least 115,593 ballots cast ahead of Saturday’s election (about 7.4%), including 47,843 in Riga. Russian Threat & Security: Latvia detained a married couple suspected of spying for Russia’s GRU, allegedly photographing the Ādaži military base from the air using a private aircraft and gathering details on NATO activity and support for Ukraine. Nuclear Deterrence Debate: President Edgars Rinkēvičs says Latvia is ready to host nuclear weapons if NATO takes a collective decision—no talks are underway now. Public Media Language Rules: The Seimas approved tighter limits on Russian-language content by public broadcasters, allowing it only in emergencies, state of exception, or to counter disinformation threatening democracy and the state. Defense Procurement & Drones: Latvia expects IRIS-T air defences to become operational in the first half of next year, while Anduril and Latvian ORIGIN are pushing a layered counter-drone system using BLAZE and Lattice software. Regional Grain Pressure: Estonia moved to ban transit of Russian and Belarusian grain; Latvia is also tightening checks as transit routes shift across the Baltics. Economy & Regulation: Latvijas Banka granted Noah LV a MiCA “double” licence for crypto services and payments, adding to Latvia’s growing regulated crypto roster. Politics Poll: A Reuters-backed SKDS poll has Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ United List leading ahead of the election, but coalition-building is expected to be difficult.

Latvia Election Watch: A Reuters brief says Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist United List is set to win the most seats in Saturday’s Saeima election, but likely won’t govern alone, with security and cost of living driving turnout and a large share of undecided voters keeping the result open. Russian Threat & NATO: President Edgars Rinkēvičs told reporters Latvia has no signs of a direct Russian invasion, while Estonia’s Milrem Robotics arson was attributed to Russian special services; he also said NATO could deploy nuclear weapons in Latvia if the alliance makes a collective decision. Defense Procurement: Latvia signed a trilateral deal to buy Czech-Slovak 155mm “Morana” artillery systems, with localization plans and SAFE financing. International Image Policy: Latvia’s International Image Policy Coordination Council resumed work to build a unified national image strategy for 2027–2031 and prepare for Latvia’s EU Council Presidency in 2028. Security Tech Scandal Spillover: Latvia suspended use of Oxygen Forensics software after US-linked claims that the firm was Russian-controlled, while checks found no confirmed data compromise. Regional Policy Push: Lithuania approved bans on Russian/Belarusian artists tied to occupied Ukraine and on Russian/Belarusian property purchases near strategic sites, with Latvia and Finland already moving similarly.

Latvia Election Watch: A Reuters report says Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist United List is expected to win the most seats on Saturday’s Saeima vote, but likely won’t get a majority, leaving coalition-building and security/cost-of-living concerns at the center as many voters remain undecided. Russian Influence & Security: President Edgars Rinkēvičs told reporters Latvia has no signs of a direct Russian invasion of NATO states, while warning sabotage and cyberattacks remain a serious risk; Latvia’s CERT also flagged repeated attacks on municipal surveillance systems. Constitution & Debt: Latvia’s Constitutional Court struck down debt-relief rules that let people be released without assessing their overall ability to repay, protecting creditors’ property rights. Defense Procurement: Latvia signed a trilateral deal to buy 155mm “Morana” artillery systems (with missile artillery) with Slovakia and the Czech defense industry, including plans to localize parts of production. Energy Costs: The Saeima is set to approve a temporary fuel tax cut by suspending a safety reserve service fee through end-2026. Public Life & Identity: Ahead of the election, AFP reports Latvia’s Russian-speaking voters in Latgale reject “Russian World” messaging and say they want solutions from within Latvia.

Latvia Election & Security: Four German Eurofighters arrived at Lielvārde to protect Latvian airspace through the Oct. 3 vote, as drones and Russian jamming have repeatedly disrupted the country. Yet the campaign debate, according to analysts, has focused more on airBaltic finances, Rail Baltica delays, and funding for NGOs than on the jets themselves. Russian Influence & Voting: With elections ahead, Russian-speakers in Latvia’s border region told AFP they reject “help” from Moscow and want to solve problems locally, amid Putin’s rhetoric about protecting Russian speakers. Defense Procurement: President Edgars Rinkēvičs says Latvia plans to buy U.S. Anduril Barracuda long-range cruise missiles, with details still unclear. Regional Escalation: Russia again warned the UK and NATO that any action against Kaliningrad could trigger nuclear retaliation, citing Sky’s “The Wargame.” Baltic Hybrid Tensions: Estonia accused Russia of ordering the Milrem Robotics arson in Tallinn and summoned Russia’s chargé d’affaires; NATO leaders backed Estonia. Trade & Transit Pressure: Latvian authorities report rising grain transit from Russia and Belarus, while customs and food checks aim to block stolen Ukrainian grain.

Baltic Security & Hybrid Attacks: Estonia says it has “full confidence” Russia ordered the Aug. 15 arson at Milrem Robotics in Tallinn, a defence firm supplying unmanned vehicles to Ukraine; three Latvian suspects were detained and handed over to Estonia, and the Kremlin rejected the claims as baseless. Diplomatic Fallout: Estonia’s foreign minister says Russia’s chargé d’affaires will be summoned, while NATO leaders voiced support for Tallinn and Kyiv after the accusation. Latvia’s Security Angle: The case highlights cross-border suspect transfers and the wider Baltic focus on sabotage risks tied to Russian intelligence activity. Nuclear Rhetoric: Russia’s embassy in London warned the UK that any NATO action against Kaliningrad could trigger nuclear response, citing the Sky drama “The Wargame.” Regional Defence Cooperation: The UK floated extending its nuclear deterrent to JEF allies, potentially covering Latvia and other Northern states via British forces. Energy & Prices: Latvia’s Saeima is advancing another measure to cut fuel costs, while Estonia debates fuel excise changes—an issue that could spill over into Baltic price competition. EU/Latvia Business: Nordic Investment Bank leased space in Riga’s Origo One, reinforcing the city’s push as a Baltic finance hub.

Baltic Security & NATO Readiness: Lithuania and Poland are building joint wartime evacuation plans for civilians, while NATO allies across the region prepare for Russian hybrid pressure and possible direct attacks—Latvia is also tightening border controls and replacing polling staff over security concerns. Latvia Defense Procurement: President Edgars Rinkēvičs says Latvia plans to buy Anduril’s Barracuda long-range cruise missiles, alongside Origin Robotics integrating Anduril command-and-control into a drone interceptor for counter-UAS testing. Sanctions & Russia Policy Split: Lithuania has imposed national entry bans on Russian oligarchs Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman for five years after the EU delisted them; Latvia and Estonia plan similar steps, highlighting a new rift in EU Russia policy. Border & Firearms Controls: Latvia bars dual Russian/Belarusian citizens from obtaining firearms permits amid ongoing concerns about disruption and infiltration. Energy & Cost Pressure: Diesel prices hit record highs across the EU, raising freight costs and inflation risks as gas storage remains “exceptionally low” heading into winter. Riga & Economy: Freeport of Riga reports a new seasonal cruise passenger record, with 150,000 visitors already this year.

Latvian Election Security: Latvia’s security service (VDD) says it’s monitoring the Saeima campaign closely, warning Russia could intensify disinformation and provocations, though it has not found systematic election interference so far. Saeima Campaign Polling: With voting on Oct 3, SKDS polling for Latvian Television shows the United List leading (14.4%), followed by SV/J (9.4%) and Latvia First (9.2%), while the Progressives drop to 6.2%. Border & Firearms Controls: Latvia has moved to tighten border controls and bar dual Russian/Belarusian citizens from firearms permits, amid concerns about disruption and illegal influence. Defense & Drones: Latvia is building a Ukraine-inspired automated anti-drone “wall” along its eastern border, aiming to make fighter jets a last resort against cheap drone incursions. Riga Court Case: A BKUS nurse received a two-and-a-half-year prison sentence after a medication mix-up caused a patient’s death, with a ban on practising medicine for four years. EU Defense Industry: EU ministers have formally identified the first five joint defense projects of common interest, including drones/counter-drones and eastern-flank surveillance. Energy & Economy: Latvijas Banka will hold its annual conference in November on euro-area challenges in the “new geopolitical reality.”

Latvia–Belarus Border Security: Latvia’s State Border Guard says cables, surveillance equipment and other infrastructure along the eastern border are being deliberately damaged to slow an automated border control system, with work already advanced on both the Belarus and Russia sections. Firearms Curbs: Latvia bars dual Russian and Belarusian citizens from obtaining firearms permits, with a transitional window for existing permit holders until Dec. 1, 2026. Long-Range Strike Push: President Edgars Rinkēvičs says Latvia is moving to acquire Anduril’s Barracuda long-range cruise missiles, aiming to add a new strike capability for the eastern flank. NATO Evacuation Planning: Reports highlight NATO allies preparing population evacuation plans tied to the Suwałki Gap, while Lithuania and Poland develop a framework that could include evacuation routes for Latvia and Estonia. EU Sanctions Politics: A new EU deal to extend sanctions renewal while dropping oligarchs Usmanov and Fridman is framed as “granular bargaining,” with Latvia singled out as firmly opposed. Defense Readiness Debate: Latvia’s defense minister warns NATO industry may be too “peacetime” and urges dispersed, wartime-capable production. International Context: Latvia’s president also faces a wider security backdrop as European officials warn Russia’s hybrid attacks are becoming more direct.

Baltic Security Planning: Latvia is tightening its firearms rules for dual Russian/Belarusian citizens, while the wider region is preparing for worst-case scenarios: Lithuania and Poland are drafting cross-border evacuation procedures for residents of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, with officials warning that the Suwałki Gap could become a key bottleneck. NATO Readiness Debate: Latvia’s defense leadership says NATO industry must learn to disperse weapons production to avoid single-point failures under attack, as European governments warn Russia’s “hybrid” activity is increasingly direct. Latvia’s Strike Capability: President Edgars Rinkēvičs says Latvia is moving to acquire Anduril’s Barracuda long-range cruise missiles, aiming to close a long-range precision gap. Parliament & Law Enforcement: Police opened a criminal probe after road signs pointing to Russian cities were defaced, and Latvia is also replacing polling-station staff over security concerns. Cyber & Tech Risks: Russia’s regulator has ordered checks on MikroTik RouterOS equipment after potential vulnerabilities were flagged. Economy & Society: “Lidl Latvija” reported 2025 turnover up 7.5% alongside continued investment, while Latvia’s genomics delegation is building US partnerships in California.