AGP Executive Report

Saeima Election Season & Government Uncertainty: With October 3 elections looming, analysts flag how the short-lived Kulbergs cabinet (approved May 28) could still be forced into tough calls while voters remain hard to predict. Baltic Security & NATO Command Changes: NATO’s Ankara deal expands Baltic Air Policing into a full air defense mission, shifting shoot-down authority under NATO command to strengthen deterrence. Russian Hybrid Pressure at the Border: Latvia is seeing rising Belarus-linked illegal crossings, turning a border-management fight into a wider Schengen debate over security and solidarity. Critical Infrastructure Protection: The Latvian government is tightening security at key energy sites, including the Incukalns gas storage and major hydropower facilities, citing risks of sabotage or hybrid action. airBaltic Rescue Talks: PM Andris Kulbergs says discussions with three potential strategic investors are ongoing, while the state’s role should be minimized and Riga’s hub protected. Shelter Rules in New Housing: New builds in Latvia often lack bomb-shelter basements, driven by low-rent housing constraints and cost calculations. EU Rule of Law & Media Freedom: A new EU report on rule of law is criticized for underestimating declines in press freedom and media pluralism. Ukraine Aid from Latvia: Another nearly €160,000 humanitarian convoy is set to depart Riga, including vehicles, Starlink kits, and equipment for drone control centers. EU Pay Transparency Delay: The EU’s pay transparency directive transposition lag is framed as not changing the reporting timeline, keeping pressure on employers to prepare.

Baltic Security: Latvia is tightening protection of critical infrastructure after intelligence warnings that Russia may be preparing hybrid or sabotage operations, with Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs pointing to heightened surveillance at the Incukalns underground gas storage and a hydroelectric dam upstream from Riga. Border Pressure & Schengen: Riga is facing renewed Belarus-linked migration pressure, with 111 attempted illegal crossings stopped on 16 July and Latvia warning the timing is tied to wider hybrid tactics ahead of its 3 October parliamentary election. Defense Cooperation: Latvia’s foreign minister Baiba Braže returned from Washington after meetings with US senators and partners, focusing on defense cooperation, support for Ukraine, and countering Russian and Iranian hybrid threats. EU Rule of Law: The European Federation of Journalists says the EU’s 2026 rule-of-law report understates the decline in press freedom and media pluralism, arguing EU mechanisms have not produced enough real change. airBaltic Watch: Latvia is negotiating with a strategic investor to keep state-controlled airBaltic flying, with short-term financing talks due at an August 3 meeting. Regional Context: Estonia marked plans for its 35th independence restoration anniversary with a fuller program starting 19 August.

Border & Schengen Pressure: Latvia is facing renewed pressure on the EU’s eastern frontier as attempted illegal crossings from Belarus jump, with 111 people stopped on 16 July and 8,253 reported so far this year—sparking debate over security, solidarity and migrant rights. Energy Security: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says Latvia has increased protection at critical sites, including the Incukalns gas storage and a hydroelectric dam upstream of Riga, after intelligence warnings of possible Russian hybrid or sabotage moves. airBaltic Rescue Talks: Latvia is negotiating with a “serious” strategic investor to keep state-controlled airBaltic flying, ahead of an 3 August meeting to seek short-term financing from bondholders; the government’s key condition is preserving airBaltic’s Riga hub. Armed Forces Accountability: After the May 7 Rēzekne drone incidents, an internal armed forces review found shortcomings but imposed no disciplinary sanctions, with classified recommendations aimed at improving procedures and threat awareness. EU Policy Fight: Nine EU member states, including Latvia, are urging Brussels to loosen cormorant culling rules after the species’ rebound, reigniting the “conservation vs. fisheries damage” dispute. Foreign Policy Outreach: Latvia’s FM Baiba Braže returned from Washington, D.C., where she discussed defence cooperation, support for Ukraine, and countering hybrid threats from Russia and Iran. Regional Security Context: Finland temporarily restricted maritime and air traffic in the Gulf of Finland due to a potential drone threat, underscoring the wider NATO eastern-flank tension.

Baltic Security: Latvia has moved to harden protection of critical infrastructure after intelligence warnings of possible Russian hybrid sabotage, with Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs citing stepped-up surveillance at the Incukalns gas storage and a hydroelectric dam upstream of Riga. airBaltic Rescue Talks: Latvia is negotiating with a strategic investor for struggling state-controlled airBaltic as it seeks short-term bondholder financing ahead of an August 3 meeting; the government’s key condition is keeping the Riga hub. NGO Funding Debate: A Latvian political scientist warns the state may soon scrutinize which NGOs truly deliver public value, arguing some groups should not rely on taxpayer money. Hybrid Pressure at the Border: Latvia says Belarus-linked migration pressure is shifting toward its border ahead of the 3 October parliamentary election, with Interior Ministry officials calling it a hybrid tactic. EU Environment Fight: Latvia and other EU states are pushing to loosen cormorant culling rules after the bird’s rebound, reigniting the “population control” dispute between fishers and conservationists. International Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Baiba Braže returned from Washington, meeting U.S. senators and discussing defense cooperation, Ukraine support, and countering Russian and Iranian threats.

Latvia-Russia Security: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says Latvia has boosted protection at the Inčukalns gas storage facility and a hydroelectric dam upstream from Riga after intelligence warnings of possible Russian sabotage and hybrid attacks, adding he asked NATO for more air defence and allied troops and for faster integration of counter-drone systems. Belarus Migration Pressure: Latvia is also described as Lukashenka’s new pressure point for the EU, with attempted illegal border crossings rising sharply ahead of the 3 October parliamentary election. airBaltic Rescue Talks: Latvia’s government is negotiating with a “strategic investor” for struggling airBaltic to avoid default, with an August 3 bondholder financing meeting looming; Transport Minister Kozlovskis says the business plan no longer targets global growth. NGO Funding Scrutiny: A debate is heating up over whether Latvia should keep funding NGOs at roughly €200m in “NGOs and individuals” budget lines, with calls to separate genuine public-value groups from those seen as mainly serving narrow interests. EU Policy Ripple: Latvia is among EU states pushing for looser cormorant culling rules after the bird’s comeback, while the EU also proposes easing carbon market cuts to give industry “breathing space.” International Context: A fact-check debunks claims that Moldova is spending more on the military than healthcare, and Russia publishes the full 2026 list of countries eligible for its unified e-visa, including Latvia.

Critical Infrastructure Security: Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs says security has been stepped up at the Inčukalns underground gas storage and a hydroelectric dam upstream from Riga after intelligence warnings of possible Russian sabotage and hybrid attacks, with requests to NATO for more air defence and troops plus faster anti-drone integration. airBaltic Rescue Talks: Latvia is negotiating with a strategic investor for state-controlled airBaltic to avert a potential default, ahead of an August 3 meeting with bondholders; Transport Minister Rihards Kozlovskis says the airline’s business plan no longer prioritizes global growth. NGO Funding Scrutiny: A political scientist warns Latvia’s government may overhaul NGO financing, questioning whether some groups provide real public value versus relying on public money. Defence Industrial Push (Canada): Prime Minister Mark Carney announces nearly $2B for made-in-Canada armoured combat support vehicles, expanding Canada’s fleet to 550 and noting deployment relevance for NATO operations including Latvia. Regional Defence Readiness (Poland/UK): Poland is drafting a legal framework for rapid military readiness before a formal war declaration, while the UK signals it is “stepping up” to fill NATO gaps left by the US. EU Legal Action: The European Commission launches infringement steps against 17 member states, including Latvia, for incomplete transposition of the revised single permit rules.

Security & Defence: Latvia has stepped up protection at the Inčukalns underground gas storage and the hydroelectric dam upstream from Riga after intelligence pointed to a Russian sabotage and hybrid threat; Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says he has pressed NATO for more air defence and allied troops and wants Latvia’s anti-drone system integrated faster into NATO defences. Hybrid Threats: The same regional warnings are echoed by Baltic and Polish officials, while Russia dismisses the claims as “scare stories.” Local Governance: Rēzekne has revised auction rules to make it easier to lease out its unwanted spa complex, removing a clause that let the city terminate the 30-year deal unilaterally and extending the deadline to September. EU Legal Process: The European Commission has launched infringement action against 17 member states, including Latvia, for failing to fully transpose the revised EU single permit rules by the May 21 deadline. Energy Markets: Fuel pellet stores in Latvia have introduced temporary purchase limits as demand spikes, with industry saying the market should stabilise within a month. Sports Diplomacy: Latvia is among nine EU countries urging the EU to cut funding to sports bodies that have re-admitted Russian athletes, while the IOC defends its provisional decision on the Russian Olympic Committee.

Security & Energy Protection: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says Latvia has boosted security at the Inčukalns gas storage and a hydroelectric dam upstream from Riga after intelligence pointed to a Russian threat, urging NATO for more air defence and more allied troops and calling for faster integration of Latvia-Ukraine anti-drone systems. Baltic Warning Loop: Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda also warned of limited Russian operations targeting critical infrastructure in the Baltics and Poland, while the Kremlin dismissed the claims as “scare stories,” as Latvia’s president warns the next 12 months are crucial. EU Sports Diplomacy: Latvia is among nine EU states urging the EU to stop funding sports bodies that readmit Russian and Belarusian athletes, as the IOC defends its provisional lifting of the Russian Olympic Committee suspension. Latvia’s Political Representation: LSM reports that in the upcoming Saeima election, Latgale lists have fewer candidates than in 2022 and about a quarter don’t even live in Latgale, raising questions about regional representation. Transport & Ports: LVR Flote, linked to the Port of Riga, joins a Baltic low-emission pilot-boat project to cut CO2 and improve sustainable pilotage operations across the region. Finance & Compliance: Separate from Latvia’s politics, New York regulators fined Swedbank $50M over failures to provide information tied to the Panama Papers probe.

Baltic Security Alert: Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs says intelligence points to Russia preparing provocations and hybrid sabotage to test NATO resolve as the war in Ukraine shifts. NATO Eastern Flank Messaging: Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda similarly warns of possible targeted “kinetic” attacks on critical infrastructure; Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejects the claims as “fearmongering.” Latvia–Lithuania Ties: Rinkēvičs, in Vilnius, stressed the “bond based on bloodline” between the two states and highlighted shared responsibility for EU and NATO external borders. Legal Pressure on Belarus: Latvia’s Prosecutor General’s Office opened a criminal case against Belarus border officials, citing alleged systematic pressure and harm aimed at undermining Latvia’s border work. Conscription Reform: The Cabinet approved draft changes to Latvia’s State Defence Service rules, including a new pre-registration option for 17-year-olds turning 18 within six months. Sports Governance Clash: Nine EU states including Latvia urged the EU to cut funding to the IOC and federations after Russia’s Olympic Committee was provisionally reinstated; the IOC says the move is provisional. Riga Infrastructure: Vanšu Bridge renovation planning may include major traffic changes, with “park and ride” options discussed. Economy Reshuffle Proposal: National Alliance floated merging three ministries into a single Ministry of the Economy to speed decisions and reduce overlap.

Olympics Funding Clash: Nine EU states including Latvia are urging Brussels to cut EU funding for the IOC and other federations after the IOC provisionally lifted the suspension of Russia’s Olympic Committee, arguing Russian and Belarusian athletes’ return should have financial consequences. Latvia’s Conscription Update: The Cabinet approved draft changes to Latvia’s State Defence Service rules, including a new pre-registration option for 17-year-olds turning 18 soon, plus more flexible service choices—now headed to Saeima approval. Baltic Security Warnings: Presidents Edgars Rinkēvičs and Gitanas Nausėda say intelligence points to possible Russian “targeted kinetic” attacks or sabotage on energy and transport infrastructure to test NATO and EU response; Russia calls it fearmongering. airBaltic Financing: Reuters reports airBaltic will seek interim financing from bondholders at an August 3 meeting as debt risks mount. Riga Traffic Disruption: Riga’s Vanšu Bridge renovation could mean major private-vehicle restrictions, with “park and ride” and extra public transport routes being considered. German Arms Surge: Germany authorized €13.87bn in military exports in the first half of 2026, with Ukraine the top recipient.

Baltic Security & Russia’s Legal Offensive: Russia is preparing a case at the International Court of Justice accusing Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia of discriminating against Russian speakers, rejecting the claims as politically motivated. Presidential Diplomacy: President Edgars Rinkēvičs heads to Lithuania for talks on bilateral ties, regional security and support for Ukraine. Lithuania Border Pressure: Lithuania’s incoming interior minister says border controls with Latvia could be reintroduced if migrant flows from Belarus via Latvia keep rising. Language Policy: Latvia is considering a ban on Russian in state media broadcasts, with the culture minister pushing to remove Russian-language content. Defense Readiness: The multinational “Sea Breeze” naval exercise is underway off the UK, with Latvia participating in mine warfare training. Latvia’s Defense Industry Push: Rēzekne will host the second Dual-Use Export Forum, aiming to connect Latvian firms with global defense and security supply chains. Digital Euro Rollout: The ECB selected 36 payment service providers for the digital euro pilot starting in late 2027. EU Sports Funding Fight: Nine EU states, including Latvia, urge the Commission to cut EU funding to the IOC and other bodies after Russia’s athletes were readmitted. Trade Sanctions: Latvia plans to ban imports of certain books and toys from Belarus and Russia, targeting items produced in aggressor states.

EU Sports Funding Clash: Nine EU countries, including Latvia, are urging the European Commission to cut Erasmus+ and other funding for the IOC and other bodies after the IOC provisionally lifted bans tied to Russian and Belarusian athletes. Latvia Education Watch: Preliminary results show more Latvian lower-secondary students failing centralized exams this year, with the passing threshold raised to 15% cited as a key factor. Baltic Security & Lawfare: Latvia is among countries facing Russia’s plan to take the Baltics to the International Court of Justice over alleged discrimination of Russian speakers. Defense Cooperation: Sea Breeze naval drills have started in the UK with Latvia participating, focusing on mine countermeasures and interoperability. Digital Euro Pilot: The ECB has selected 36 payment providers for a digital euro pilot starting in late 2027, with major fintech and banks among the participants. Regional Politics & Courts: A convicted rapist ex-mayor is set to be deported after losing his appeal, with the case highlighting how deportation decisions are being tested in court.

Digital Euro Rollout: The ECB has picked 36 payment service providers to join the digital euro pilot, starting in the second half of 2027 for 12 months, to test technical operations and refine the user experience. Latvia Telecom Deal: Latvia’s government is in talks with 23 potential investors for a landmark acquisition of Telia’s stakes in LMT and Tet, with valuations and security screening under way. Latvian Politics: Aleksejs Rosļikovs, a former Riga city council member who fled to Belarus, says he plans to return to Latvia on 4 October to resume political work for Stabilitātei! ahead of the autumn Saeima election. Security & Hybrid Threats: A Latvian intelligence warning suggests Russia may be preparing provocations against the Baltics and Poland, with officials warning of escalation beyond a simple invasion scenario. Baltic Way Memorial in Paris: Latvia and Estonia unveiled a Baltic Way plaque in Paris, linking the 1989 human chain to today’s message on Ukraine and regional decision-making. Education Pressure: Latvia reports 39,000 primary pupils in classes of 30+ (about 7.5%), keeping crowding a live domestic policy issue. EU Sanctions & Cyber: The EU and UK imposed sanctions on Russian military intelligence officers and hackers over a long-running cyber sabotage and espionage campaign.

South China Sea Diplomacy: Latvia is among 14 countries backing a 10-year-old Hague ruling that rejects China’s expansive South China Sea claims, while Beijing fires back that the “award” is invalid and urges states to stop “stirring up trouble.” Defense & Deterrence: Latvia’s security posture stays in focus as NATO-related coverage highlights expanded allied deployments and air-defense upgrades across the region. Budget vs. Fairness: Latvia’s Finance Ministry warns that meeting a higher defense-spending target will require steep new funding—while critics argue regressive taxes will deepen inequality and strain public trust. Hybrid Warfare & Lawfare: A new report says Russia plans to use international courts against the Baltics over alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians, framed as “lawfare” and part of broader hybrid pressure. EU Cyber Sanctions: The EU and UK move to sanction FSB-linked hackers and intelligence-linked entities over a long-running cyberespionage and sabotage campaign. Local Governance Oversight: Latvia’s Culture Ministry suspends a cooperation project with a women’s NGO network after an audit flagged unclear selection criteria and non-traceable training costs. Cross-Border Sanctions Evasion: Investigations claim a Lithuanian firm shipped Starlink terminals and drone-related components to Russia via the Latvian border by misdeclaring goods. Institutional Appointments: Normunds Feierbergs is confirmed to the management board of RIX Riga Airport, tasked with strategic finance and IT priorities.

Energy Security & EU Integration: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia have completed full synchronization with the EU electricity system, cutting reliance on Russia and Belarus and linking into the continental grid via Poland—leaving Cyprus as the lone EU member still energy-isolated. Russia-Linked Cyber & Sanctions: The EU imposed sanctions on Russian military intelligence officers and entities over a yearslong cyberespionage and sabotage campaign targeting governments and critical infrastructure across Europe. Baltic Legal Warfare: A new investigative report says Moscow’s case at the International Court of Justice over alleged discrimination against ethnic Russians is being prepared by a law firm tied to Russian intelligence-linked figures, with Latvia singled out in Kremlin claims. Latvia in International Defense Finance: Turkey has told Canada it will join the Canada-led Defense, Security and Resilience Bank as a founding member, with Latvia among the pledged participants. Latvian State Forests Deal: Latvijas valsts meži bought nearly 5,000 hectares in Latgale from Swedish owners for about €26.4m, boosting long-term timber resources. Border Politics in the Region: Lithuania’s interior minister said temporary controls on the Latvia border are on the table to stop secondary migration. South China Sea Diplomacy: Latvia is among 14 countries reaffirming the 2016 arbitration ruling as final and legally binding, while China rejects it and escalates diplomatic protests.

South China Sea Diplomacy: On the 10th anniversary of the 2016 UNCLOS arbitration, 14 countries including Latvia reaffirmed the ruling as “final and legally binding,” rejecting China’s “expansive maritime claims” and warning against coast guard, military and militia harassment; the EU echoed the same line while Beijing dismissed the award as “null and void,” insisting its sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and “historic rights” stand. NATO Air-Defense Reality Check: A report says NATO failed to meet its Vilnius pledge for permanent rotational air-defense coverage in the Baltics, citing Europe’s limited Patriot stocks and shifting priorities toward Ukraine, with the mission increasingly reframed as air defense rather than air policing. Transatlantic Politics: U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham’s death sparked tributes across NATO, Ukraine and Israel, with Baltic officials highlighting his support for NATO’s eastern flank and Ukraine. Latvia in the Mix: Latvia is named among the signatories in the South China Sea statement, underscoring Riga’s continued alignment with transatlantic and rules-based maritime positions.