AGP Executive Report

Latvia’s Pre-Election Rules: Latvia’s official Saeima campaign period starts June 6, with KNAB warning parties to label political ads clearly and avoid hidden campaigning as scrutiny ramps up through Oct. 3. Schengen Visa Tightening: The European Commission says it will propose targeted restrictions on Russian Schengen visas next year after pressure from France, Italy and Spain, following a letter signed by 11 states including Latvia. EBRD in Riga: The EBRD annual meeting continues to shape policy talk in Latvia’s capital, with the EU expanding InvestEU guarantees by up to €478.4m and the bank pledging scaled support for conflict-hit economies like Ukraine and parts of the Middle East. Defense & Deterrence: Latvia’s foreign minister urges NATO to stay focused on collective defense and deterrence, stressing deployable forces, resilient supply chains and investments in air defense and drones ahead of the Türkiye summit. Armenia vs. Russia Trade Pressure: EU leaders announce a €50m+ emergency support package for Armenia after Russia’s export restrictions, including steps to help blocked goods reach EU markets (with shipments linked to Latvia). Energy Storage Reality Check: Baltic green power faces a “realization” problem as solar output drives near-zero prices at times, pushing experts to prioritize BESS and larger demand sources like data centers.

EBRD & EU Investment Boost: The EBRD and the EU announced expanded InvestEU guarantees worth up to €478.4mn, plus €11.4mn for advisory support, to help fund higher-risk green, digital and infrastructure projects across EU economies. Ukraine Spillover & NATO Tensions: As drone warfare pushes into NATO territory, a Ukrainian naval drone reportedly “lost control” in Romania’s Constanța port after Russian electronic warfare, underlining how hard it is for allies to help without getting hit. Armenia Under Pressure: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU is preparing an emergency package of over €50mn after Russia tightened restrictions on Armenian exports, with practical help for sectors like flowers (including shipments planned to arrive in Latvia). Schengen Visa Fight: Eleven EU states, including Latvia, are urging the Commission to impose tougher, binding Schengen visa limits on Russian nationals amid concerns about security and continued tourist travel. Latvia’s Energy Storage Deal: Rolls-Royce Power Systems will supply Sunly with 490 MWh of battery storage across four BESS projects in Latvia, citing EU cybersecurity requirements. EU Pay Transparency Deadline Pressure: A new EU directive on pay transparency is due by 7 June 2026, but many countries are lagging, raising fresh questions for Latvia-linked workers and employers.

EBRD in Riga: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s Board of Governors meeting is under way, with EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis saying the focus is on the bank’s global performance, support for Ukraine and Moldova, and keeping pace with EU technology priorities. Energy & industry: Rolls-Royce Power Systems and Sunly have signed contracts for four Latvia battery storage projects totaling 490 MWh, with commissioning starting in 2027, while Next Biogas/HoSt Group is set to build a biomethane plant in Sigulda with EBRD financing. Security & defence: Latvia and Ukraine are drafting a long-term defence deal centered on drone tech, air defence, cybersecurity and defence-industry integration; NATO’s multinational brigade is also expanding deployments beyond Ādaži into Daugavpils as part of deterrence and training. EU politics: The European Commission is preparing tighter, targeted visa restrictions for Russian nationals next year after backlash over uneven Schengen implementation. Regional ties: The first shipment of Armenian roses (5,500) has been exported to Latvia, backed by EU support amid Russian trade pressure. Governance watch: A political analyst says Latvia’s new government is operating in “firefighter mode” after its first week, with an unusually fast pace of cabinet meetings and public updates.

EU-Armenia Aid: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spoke with Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and said the EU is preparing an assistance package worth over €50m to counter Russian economic restrictions, including measures to expand agri-food exports and practical support for sectors like flowers. Riga Trade Signals: The first shipment of 5,500 Armenian roses has been exported to Latvia, with direct flights cited as a boost for business ties. Baltic Security Drills: “BALTOPS 26” is underway in the Baltic Sea, training evacuation, mine clearance, amphibious operations and underwater robotics, with allied low-level overflights planned. NATO Presence in Latgale: NATO’s multinational brigade has deployed troops in Daugavpils for the first time, expanding beyond Ādaži to improve readiness to defend all of Latvia. Information Space Governance: Latvia’s Saeima approved changes at the media regulator: Aurēlija Ieva Druviete was elected NEPLP chair, with information-space security named a top priority. Cyber Resilience Warning: A Latvian security commentary highlights high cyber threat levels and growing automation of attacks, urging stronger digital protection alongside physical defense. Public Safety & Law: Police report a major weed bust in Latgale, seizing 835 marijuana plants, while Latvia is also debating tougher penalties after attacks on doctors. Economy & Transport: Riga Airport says passenger growth targets face pressure from geopolitics and fuel costs, while Latvia raised €1bn via sustainable government bonds. UN Diplomacy: Austria, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, Zimbabwe and Kyrgyzstan won UN Security Council seats for 2027–28, with Germany failing in the vote.

Latvia’s Security & Defence: Latvia’s eastern Latgale is adjusting to repeated drone intrusions and air-raid alerts that have disrupted exams and public events, underlining fears of spillover from the Russia-Ukraine war. NATO Posture: NATO intercepted six Russian aircraft over the Baltic as part of air policing, with France reporting unusually frequent scrambles. EU Sanctions & Mobility: Sweden and 10 other countries, including Latvia, are pushing the EU for tighter Schengen visa rules for Russians to stop “shopping weekends” while Ukrainians fight. Armenia Support via EU: The EU pledged over €50m in immediate aid to Armenia after Russia’s export restrictions, including measures to reroute trade—EU officials say a first shipment of 10,000 flowers is set to arrive in Latvia. Energy & Infrastructure: Latvenergo plans to donate decommissioned TEC-2 equipment to help rebuild Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, pending regulatory approvals. Public Finance: Latvia’s State Treasury raised €1bn via a seven-year sustainable bond issue. Economy & Business: Sunly opened a 54 MW solar park in Valmiera as part of a hybrid plan reaching €100m, with battery storage partnerships expanding across Latvia.

UN Security Council Shuffle: The UN General Assembly elected Austria, Kyrgyzstan, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago, and Zimbabwe to the 2027-28 UN Security Council term, while Germany failed to win the two Western European seats. Latvia’s UN Continuity: Latvia remains on the Council until end-2027, giving Riga a steady seat as the new members take over from Jan. 1, 2027. Baltic Defence Focus: Latvia’s new Defence Minister Raivis Melnis says drones entering Latvian airspace must be intercepted and destroyed, pushing for a wider detection-and-interception network, not just one system. Counter-Drone Cooperation: Ukraine plans to send drone-defense specialists to Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Romania to share operational experience and interceptor know-how. NATO Drills Near Russia: NATO launched the scaled-down BALTOPS naval exercise in the Baltic Sea near Russia’s borders, with Latvia among participating countries. EU Visa Pressure: 11 European governments, including Latvia, urged the EU Commission to tighten Schengen rules and restrict Russian tourist visas amid the war in Ukraine. airBaltic Financial Strain: Latvia’s new government faces renewed pressure over airBaltic losses and the prospect of additional state support in the summer.

UN Security Council: Austria, Kyrgyzstan, Portugal, Trinidad and Tobago and Zimbabwe were elected non-permanent members for 2027-28, while Germany failed to win a Western European seat. Ukraine-Russia War & Baltic Security: Ukrainian drones hit St Petersburg ahead of Putin’s economic forum, disrupting flights and prompting air-raid alerts even in Latvia and Estonia; Zelenskyy says Ukraine will send drone countermeasure instructors to Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Romania. NATO Deterrence Debate: The US is reportedly considering expanding NATO nuclear-sharing eastward for the first time since the Cold War, raising fresh alarm across Europe. Latvia’s Defence Cooperation: Latvia and Finland signed a plan to develop a common protected military vehicle system over three years. airBaltic Crisis: Latvia’s PM says the state can’t be the only backstop; losses topped €70m in Q1 and a summer decision is looming on whether private capital is needed. Tourism Pressure: Eurostat shows Latvia’s foreign overnight stays down 3% in Q1 2026, amid broader regional uncertainty. Ammunity Leadership: Ammunity named a new CEO, Kaspars Pollaks, as the defence ammo maker pushes capacity and end-user cooperation.

Rail Baltica Funding Crunch: RB Rail’s Matīss Paegle warns Latvia’s new government must quickly decide on the financing plan and 2030 delivery timeline, with options including a PPP for the northern mainline and possible use of the EU SAFE instrument—otherwise delays could keep driving costs up. airBaltic Rescue Debate: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs says taxpayers can’t be the only backstop for the national carrier; he’s ordering officials to review the business plan and says a “this summer” decision is unavoidable, as the airline repaid part of a state loan and still faces major losses. Ukraine-Russia War Spillover: Ukraine carried out a major strike on a St Petersburg oil port ahead of Putin’s SPIEF “Russia’s Davos,” underscoring how the war is hitting Russia’s economy and international messaging. Latvia-Russia Trade Switch: Kulbergs says he will instruct the foreign minister to prepare a decision to terminate export/import of goods with Russia, with EU coordination and possible carve-outs for sectors like pharmaceuticals. Public Safety Messaging: Latvia’s crisis-preparedness focus turns to clear, pre-checked instructions and how to act on cell-broadcast alerts to reduce panic and ease rescue workloads. Local Environment: Baldone moves to shut down a quail farm after residents complained about severe odour from poultry waste. Sports Calendar: Latvia is among the teams set for the FIBA U18 Women’s EuroBasket in Stockholm (Aug 1–9).

Latvian–Ukrainian Energy Aid: President Edgars Rinkēvičs met Ukraine’s PM Yuliia Svyrydenko in Riga, backing Ukraine’s EU accession and expanding military cooperation, including steps to reduce drone threats to Latvian airspace; Latvia is also accelerating equipment transfers from its CHPPs to help restore Ukrainian energy facilities ahead of the next heating season. Government Process Reset: Latvia’s new coalition under PM Andris Kulbergs agreed to hold cabinet meetings twice a week—Tuesdays and Fridays—after a coalition council shift back to the Saeima, with ministers set to name sector priorities as elections loom on Oct. 3. Rail Baltica Cost Shock: RB Rail says Latvia’s Rail Baltica mainline contract is among the most expensive in the Baltics, with DS4 unit costs far higher than Estonia and Lithuania, pushing the government toward redesign or renegotiation choices. Security & Drones: Latvia and other states joined a UN Security Council condemnation after a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace, while Latvia’s own drone training and counter-drone readiness remain a recurring focus. Diplomacy: Serbia’s Milena Mitic took up duties as Serbia’s first resident ambassador in Riga, and Armenia’s FM Baiba Braze discussed hybrid actions targeting democratic processes. Culture & Society: Latvia’s public safety experts stress using official 112.lv guidance and cell-broadcast instructions to reduce panic during emergencies, as bear-management initiatives continue to divide public opinion.

Government Process: Latvia’s new coalition under PM Andris Kulbergs is moving to hold cabinet meetings twice a week, with coalition council talks shifted to the Saeima and a Latgale off-site planned for June 27. Defense & Drones: Latvia will host Ukrainian drone warfare specialists to improve counter-drone detection and build a layered air-defence plan after past drone incidents helped topple the previous government. Rail Baltica Costs: RB Rail says Latvia’s Rail Baltica mainline contract is among the most expensive in the Baltics, with embankment unit prices far higher than Estonia and Lithuania, raising the question of redesign versus renegotiation. Cybersecurity: A Latvian national, Deniss Zolotarjovs, was sentenced in the US to 102 months for acting as a negotiator in the Karakurt ransomware group. State Appointments: Latvia’s State Forests (LVM) is launching a board-chair selection with a €16,600 monthly gross salary and strict language and management requirements. Public Debate: A bear-hunting proposal on manabalss.lv is sparking a split between limited hunting and a prevention-first approach with electric fences. International Cooperation: Latvia and Ukraine agreed to deepen drone technology and energy-security cooperation, including a bilateral drone technologies agreement. Culture & Film: Liepāja starts ticket sales for “Sun & Sea” (European Capital of Culture 2027) and Karlovy Vary unveils its 60th edition lineup, including “Hijamat.”

Latvia-Ukraine Defence Ties: Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs met Ukrainian PM Yulia Svyrydenko in Riga and agreed to deepen cooperation on drone technology, energy security and economic development, including a bilateral deal on drones and a Latvian donation of a thermal power unit for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Counter-Drone Support: Kulbergs said Ukrainian drone specialists will travel to Latvia to advise on layered air defence and improve detection and shooting down of drones after repeated airspace incidents. Latvian Politics & Governance: Latvia’s drone-related tensions are again in focus as the government’s shift after earlier drone incursions remains a live political reference point. Riga Heat Costs: Riga Mayor Viesturs Kleinbergs warned that Latvenergo plans to raise heat prices for TEC-1/TEC-2, potentially pushing up the tariff residents pay via Rīgas siltums. EU Consumer Greenwashing Crackdown: The European Commission opened infringement steps against Latvia and 19 other states over delayed transposition of rules on green claims and sustainability labels. Local Public Safety: Jēkabpils authorities escorted a bear out of town using a closed road corridor and drones with infrared cameras, with no injuries reported. airBaltic Business Plan: airBaltic’s new business plan is nearing supervisory board review, with approval expected this week but details kept confidential as “commercial secrets.” Labour Market: Latvia’s unemployment rate rose to 6.5% in April, above EU and eurozone averages, according to Eurostat.

Baltic Airspace & Drone Risk: Latvia’s tourism and hospitality sector is feeling the fallout from renewed warnings about drone and airspace threats, with Riga officials and experts arguing that chaotic messaging is driving cancellations even when incidents are still being investigated. Energy Costs in Riga: Riga mayor Viesturs Kleinbergs says Latvenergo plans to raise heat prices for TEC-1/TEC-2, pushing the issue into the Ministry of Economics’ responsibility and renewing debate over municipal control of Rīgas siltums. Regional Security Hardware: Estonia is installing stationary anti-drone detection systems along its Russia border, while Latvia and the Netherlands are aligning on drone testing near Russian and Belarusian frontiers. Diplomatic-Legal Pressure: Russia says it is preparing an International Court of Justice case against Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia over alleged discrimination against Russian speakers. NATO Command Shift: Germany and the Netherlands’ German-Dutch corps is set to take a leading NATO role in Latvia and Estonia, with transition details still being worked through. Public Safety Drills: Finland is testing emergency alert sirens and explicitly integrating drone-warning alerts into civil defense protocols. Global Context: Ukraine’s Zelensky warns Russia is preparing “massive” attacks and says Ukraine tries to intercept drones even when they head toward Baltic partners.

Baltic Air-Defence Push: Estonia has begun deploying stationary anti-drone detection systems along its border with Russia, with the first devices already operating on three southeastern border sections and plans to extend coverage across the rest of the frontier by year-end, using mobile radar where fixed gear is not yet ready. Latvia’s Security Angle: The same drone pressure is feeding Latvia’s own border posture, as Estonia’s upgrades come amid repeated cross-border drone incidents and NATO’s wider focus on counter-drone readiness. Ukraine’s Warning to Partners: Ukrainian President Zelenskyy told CBS that Russia’s drone and missile activity is meant as political pressure on Ukraine’s partners, while Ukraine is trying to intercept drones even when they head toward other countries, including the Baltics. NATO Command in the Baltics: A German-Dutch NATO corps is set to take over defensive command for Latvia and Estonia, with the transition raising questions about temporary capability dips during handover. Critical Infrastructure Security: Malaysia, Singapore and 15 others launched a framework to strengthen the security of critical underwater infrastructure, with Latvia among the endorsers. Legal/International Dispute: Russia says it will take Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to the UN’s top court over alleged crackdowns on Russian-speakers, signaling a new phase in the dispute.

Latvia’s Security & Government: Latvia is again in the spotlight as the region hardens against drone and hybrid threats, with Estonia moving fast on counter-drone monitoring and Latvia’s own border fortifications and air-defence plans feeding the broader NATO push. Baltic Counter-Drone Push: Estonia activated its first fixed stationary anti-drone detection systems along three southeastern border sectors with Russia, with full coverage planned by year-end, while also using mobile monitoring where needed. NATO Command & Deterrence: Germany and the Netherlands will jointly lead a new NATO command centre in Estonia, with the 1 German-Netherlands Corps taking over from mid-year to coordinate exercises and eastern-flank defence. Latvia in the Wider Security Picture: A major NATO-EU flashpoint came from Romania, where a Russian drone crash into a Galati apartment building injured two and triggered calls for faster anti-drone transfers. Undersea Infrastructure Security: Seventeen countries, including Latvia, launched GUIDE at the Shangri-La Dialogue to protect critical underwater cables and energy links, explicitly noting the absence of the US and China. Human Impact Beyond Politics: Three Latvian climbers died in a fall on Alaska’s Denali/Mount McKinley; one was rescued and airlifted for medical care.

Romania Drone Spillover: A Russian drone struck an apartment block in Galati, Romania, injuring two and triggering evacuations, prompting NATO and EU leaders to denounce “recklessness” and call for faster anti-drone support. Baltic Security Pressure: The incident lands amid rising Baltic fears of hybrid tactics, including GPS spoofing and drone misdirection into NATO airspace, with Latvia’s own political turmoil tied to drone-response scrutiny. Russia’s Counter-Narrative: Vladimir Putin said the drone’s origin may not be Russian and floated the idea of an independent probe, while also warning that any threat to Kaliningrad would be met with force. Latvia’s Domestic Stakes: Latvia’s coalition politics remain tightly linked to defense readiness after earlier drone-related fallout, keeping air-defense and border protection at the center of government formation debates. International Cooperation: Japan pledged $14.7M to NATO’s PURL for Ukraine, while the Council of Baltic Sea States urged tougher sanctions and enforcement on Russia. Tragedy Abroad: Three Latvian climbers died in a fall on Alaska’s Mount McKinley; a fourth was rescued but remains in critical condition.

Romania Drone Spillover: A Russian drone that strayed from attacks on Ukraine crashed into an apartment block in Galati, Romania, injuring two and triggering a fire; Bucharest scrambled F-16s and pressed for faster anti-drone help, while NATO and the EU condemned the “reckless” breach. Putin’s Counter-Narrative: Vladimir Putin questioned whether the drone was Russian and floated the idea it could be Ukrainian, urging Russia be allowed to investigate the wreckage. Baltic Border Fortification: Latvia has started installing “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank barriers along the Russia border, with concrete blocks in multiple rows and plans to expand anti-mobility defenses. Latvia Government Watch: Nauris Puntulis returned as Minister of Culture after parliament approved a new government led by PM Andris Kulbergs, following the coalition collapse. Defense Industry & Procurement: Norway signed onto the Patria-led CAVS framework for serial procurement of 6×6 armored vehicles, with Latvia among participating partners. Economy Snapshot: Latvia’s GDP rose 2.5% in Q1 2026, led by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Aviation & Tech: KBR’s PureSAF technology was selected by NorSAF for a major SAF/e-SAF plant planned to start production in 2030.