AGP Executive Report

Espionage Sentences: A Latvian man was sentenced to five years and six months for spying for Russia’s GRU, passing information on Spilve airfield, SIM-card purchasing conditions, military and political developments, aid to Ukraine, and NATO activity; prosecutors say the handler has been identified and separate proceedings opened. Security & Deterrence: NATO has assigned a second command zone for the Baltic region, with the German-Dutch Corps taking charge of exercises and, in a conflict, defence of the eastern flank; a US general said Washington will back Baltic defence “with boots in the mud.” Ukraine Drone Cooperation: Latvia confirmed a deal with Ukraine to help establish joint drone manufacturing near the eastern border with Russia and close to Belarus, following an emergency cabinet meeting. Rail Baltica Funding Crunch: Latvia’s public broadcaster reports a roughly €10bn gap to finish Rail Baltica’s first phase, with EU support after 2028 uncertain and Baltic states likely needing to cover more. Language Policy Fallout: Latvia’s culture minister ordered Russian removed from the public sphere in cultural institutions, a move that could disrupt two Russian-language theatres’ operations. Youth Radicalisation Watch: The VDD warns youth radicalisation is rising as extremist groups recruit online via platforms and gaming communities. International Mobility Fees: ETIAS rules will add a €20 charge (about £17) for UK and Scottish travellers to a long list of European destinations, including Latvia, with exemptions for children and those over 70.

Latvia-Ukraine Defense Industry: Latvia and Ukraine are moving fast on unmanned systems, with plans for a joint UAV/drone manufacturing facility near the border with Russia and Belarus, plus interceptor drone defenses to reduce the need to scramble aircraft. Eastern Flank Security: Lithuania says there are no signs of a large-scale Russian attack on the Baltics, but sabotage threats against critical infrastructure remain high, echoing Latvia’s own intelligence warnings about possible hybrid provocations. NATO Airspace Tensions: Estonia’s foreign minister argues that stray Ukrainian drones into NATO territory are an “acceptable price” for hitting Russia’s oil and military targets, while noting Latvia’s prior political fallout over how such incidents were handled. EU Sanctions & Trade: Latvia is drafting amendments to ban imports of certain industrial goods from Russia and Belarus under a new support framework for Ukrainian civilians, with the final list to be set by cabinet rules. Anti-Fraud Enforcement: EPPO arrested 11 suspects across Germany, Poland and Latvia in a diesel VAT fraud probe linked to €240m losses, targeting “designer fuels” routed through complex transactions. Domestic Politics: For Stability! submitted candidate lists for Latvia’s 15th Saeima elections, with a wanted figure in the Riga list and a party faction collapse looming in the background. Energy Transition: The EU backed a major energy storage deployment target, aiming to raise annual storage from about 12 GW (2025) to roughly 45 GW (2026-2028).

Drone Deal: Latvia and Ukraine are set to cooperate on unmanned systems, including rapid joint drone production with a facility planned near Latvia’s border with Russia, while new counter-drone systems are expected to be operational along the Belarus and Russian borders in July–August. NATO Security Signals: Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau says Russia is more likely to use hybrid attacks and provocations than a large-scale conventional assault, aiming to pressure NATO to cut Ukraine support—though it judges success as unlikely. Baltic Command Shift: From July 1, Latvia’s and Estonia’s land forces move under NATO’s 1st German/Netherlands Corps, with the outgoing command refocusing on Poland and Lithuania and the Suwałki Corridor. Public Safety Pressure: Riga’s Imanta rail crossing drew a protest demanding automatic barriers after two fatal accidents in eight months. Economy & Regulation: Bolt reported its first net profit (900k euros) and rising revenue, while Latvia’s Competition Council previously found no monopoly abuse. Markets: ECB governor Mārtiņš Kazāks urged against rushed multiple rate hikes, easing pressure on risk assets. Weather: Latvia faces a tropical night and high UV levels, with more showers and thunderstorms expected next.

Presidential Diplomacy: Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki hosted an informal summit in Jurata with the presidents of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Romania, focusing on NATO’s eastern flank, Baltic and Black Sea security, transatlantic ties, and regional energy/transport priorities ahead of the Ankara summit. NATO Command Shift: From July 1, Latvia and Estonia’s land forces will fall under NATO’s 1st German/Netherlands Corps, with the handover ceremony in Valga-Valka on June 30 as NATO restructures to speed up readiness on the eastern flank. Eastern Border Security: Latvia’s Interior Ministry is set to extend reinforced eastern border protection with Belarus until December 31, citing ongoing illegal crossings and persistent hybrid-threat risks. Baltic Defense Pressure: Baltic leaders warn the Ukraine war is reshaping EU security into a “peace with arms” model, while NATO officials and regional reporting highlight fears of Russian hybrid provocations aimed at testing alliance unity. EU Energy Push: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the EU to accelerate a ban on Russian oil imports, arguing the remaining volumes still fund Moscow’s war effort. Climate Impact: A Europe-wide heatwave is driving record temperatures, outages and health strain, with Latvia expected to feel the heat this weekend. Latvia in the Spotlight: Latvia is among top applicants for Russia’s “Shared Values” visa programme, raising questions about legal migration and political risk.

Eastern Border Security: Latvia’s Interior Ministry wants to extend the reinforced eastern border protection regime until December 31, citing ongoing illegal crossings and persistent hybrid-threat risks, with the Belarus direction under the biggest migratory pressure. Russian Oil Ban Push: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are urging the EU to speed up plans for a full ban on Russian oil imports, arguing the remaining flows still help finance Russia’s war and that the earlier energy-crisis fears have not materialized. Latvian Language Policy: Culture Minister Nauris Puntulis’ adviser says the order to remove Russian from the public sphere in Culture Ministry institutions won’t restrict theatre productions when the original script is in Russian. EU Defense Financing: Latvia has signed a €3.5 billion EU defense loan under the SAFE programme, adding to the country’s push to strengthen security capacity. NATO Threat Warnings: Poland’s foreign minister says Russia could stage a “false flag” operation to justify strikes on NATO members, aligning with recent Baltic intelligence warnings about possible provocations. Rail Baltica Funding Reality Check: Rail Baltica’s first-phase funding gap remains unresolved, with Baltic leaders warning the EU’s next budget after 2028 may not cover what’s needed.

Latvia’s Border Security: The Interior Ministry will ask the government to extend the enhanced border protection regime along the eastern frontier (Ludza, Kraslava, Augšdaugava, Rēzekne and Daugavpils) until Dec. 31, citing ongoing illegal crossings, hybrid-threat risks, and smuggling. Russian Provocations & NATO Doubts: Poland’s FM Radosław Sikorski said he wouldn’t rule out a “false flag” operation by Russia to justify strikes on NATO states, as Baltic intelligence warnings keep pointing to hybrid attacks. Russian Oil Ban Push: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urged the EU to speed up a full ban on Russian oil imports, arguing remaining volumes still fund the war; EU talks have been delayed amid the Iran-related energy scare. Culture & Language Policy: Latvia’s Culture Ministry clarified that a Puntulis order removing Russian from public ministry communications won’t automatically restrict theatre works originally written in Russian, while institutions must follow Latvian language rules in official functions. Cybersecurity Watch: A ransomware-linked breach at state-owned LVM raised concerns because it supports an electoral IT platform; the minister said the voter register itself was completed before the incident and elections are not “ringing alarm bells.”

NATO Eastern Flank Watch: Latvian intelligence and other NATO sources warn Russia could stage hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland to test alliance unity as Ukraine hits deeper into Russia. Ukraine–Latvia Defense Ties: Zelenskyy and President Edgars Rinkēvičs discussed the Drone Deal, Latvia’s extra PURL contribution, and cooperation under SAFE as EU accession talks move forward. Cybersecurity & Elections: Latvia’s state forests breach raises alarms; the Smart Administration minister says the LVM incident involved systems tied to an electoral IT platform, though the electronic voter register is said to be completed and not at risk. Energy Policy: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania urge the EU to speed up a full phase-out of Russian oil imports, arguing revenues still fund the war. Information Integrity: Prosecutor General Armīns Meisters says freedom of speech has become “lawlessness,” calling for action against disinformation and hate speech. EU Travel Rules: New UK–Schengen entry rules expand passport checks and EES requirements, with fingerprint scans for most travelers. Crypto Crackdown: Europol’s Endgame operation shut down malware infrastructure and seized $47m in crypto. Weather: Heat wave is set to push Latvia into the 30–35°C range this weekend and early next week. Sports (Latvia angle): The New York Rangers selected Latvian defenseman Alberts Šmits 5th overall in the NHL Draft.

NATO Eastern Flank Alarm: Latvia’s intelligence says Russia may be preparing “military provocations” against the Baltic states or Poland, likely via hybrid actions like drones and missiles to test NATO unity and pressure allies to cut support for Ukraine. Ukraine-Latvia Defense Ties: Presidents Zelenskyy and Rinkēvičs discussed the Drone Deal and Ukraine’s EU accession talks, with Latvia adding €7m to the PURL programme. Air Defense Push: Defence Minister Raivis Melnis says Latvia will deploy additional air defence systems and improve radar/interception along the eastern border, alongside shelter and communications planning for local governments. Riga Politics: A SKDS survey shows falling approval for Riga City Council leadership, with low name recognition and negative sentiment flagged as key issues. Cybersecurity Watch: The LVM cyberattack is being used as a warning sign that Latvia’s strategic infrastructure remains vulnerable, with officials urging other institutions to audit their systems. EU Consumer Law: Latvia voted against the EU’s long-awaited air passenger rights overhaul (EU261), set to apply by end-2027. Energy & Industry: Latvia’s Prime Prometics tops €100m in annual revenue, while Rolls-Royce Power Systems and Sunly plan major battery storage deployments in Latvia.

Eastern Flank Security: NATO’s eastern flank leaders, meeting in Gdańsk, warned Russia may stage a “provocation” against the Baltic states or Poland to test Western unity, with Latvian intelligence pointing to possible hybrid moves like missiles and drones rather than a full-scale attack. Defense & US ties: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk said the region faces a “highly unstable” threat and called for tighter coordination among border states, while Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs stressed the Eastern Flank is defending all of Europe. EU defense planning: MEPs backed the new AGILE rapid defence innovation programme, aiming to speed up disruptive tech adoption across member states and support SMEs. Cybersecurity & elections: Latvia’s Smart Administration minister said the LVM cyberattack shows state infrastructure is still vulnerable, but insisted the electronic voter register was moved to the state before the breach and was not compromised. Latvian language policy: The Culture Ministry ordered institutions to stop using Russian in official activities, with a July 30 deadline for implementation. Ukraine recovery: A major Ukraine reconstruction summit opened in Poland without President Zelensky amid a Kyiv–Warsaw dispute, as the EU announced the first tranche of its Ukraine loan. Energy grid politics: EU governments are set to resist Brussels’ push to control electricity supergrid planning, but may accept a limited Commission role.

EU Defence Innovation: MEPs backed the new AGILE programme to speed up disruptive defence tech, with simpler SME funding and rules aimed at keeping results usable for Ukraine. Eastern Flank Watch: Eastern-border EU states, including Latvia, pushed for the “Eastern Flank Watch” to be approved and funded fast as drone threats rise. Latvian Language Policy: Latvia’s Culture Ministry ordered institutions to stop using Russian in official activities, with a July 30 deadline and carve-outs for professional art. Education Reform Talk: The Education Minister floated shifting Latvia’s school structure toward 11 grades, arguing exams already peak earlier. Riga Politics: A new SKDS poll shows most Riga City Council leaders losing popularity, with sharp drops for key committee chairs. Cybersecurity & Elections Tech: A cyberattack hit Latvian State Forests’ IT systems, while election-system development was said to be unaffected. Transport Contract: Vivi will fine Škoda Vagonka €5.7m over delayed electric trains and unresolved defects. Crypto Regulation: Binance withdrew its Greece MiCA bid and is seeking another EU route; Latvia’s MiCA license was granted to Kanga’s Latvia unit. Ukraine Recovery Summit: A major reconstruction conference opened in Gdansk without Zelenskyy, amid a Kyiv-Warsaw diplomatic row.

Energy Security & EU Policy: A sharp drop in oil prices is being flagged as a “dangerous” moment for Europe’s energy security, because the real cost of importing fuel through risky routes often isn’t counted until crises force expensive new build-outs. Defense & Regional Threats: Germany’s defense industry chief says production is now scaling up, while Latvia’s wider region remains on alert for Russian missile/drone provocations and hybrid escalation. Ukraine Reconstruction Diplomacy: An Ukraine recovery summit in Gdansk opens without Zelensky, with the event overshadowed by a Kyiv–Warsaw row over how Ukraine honors wartime figures. Latvia’s Procurement & Accountability: Latvian rail operator PV/Vivi will fine Škoda Vagonka €5.7m for delayed electric trains and unresolved defects, after review by PwC and a Latvian law firm. Riga Politics: A new SKDS poll shows most Riga City Council leaders losing popularity, with several committee chairs hitting steep declines. Local Culture Project: The Lūznava wooden school restoration plan is put on hold, delaying a planned inclusive cultural and tourism center. Crypto Regulation Watch (Latvia in the mix): Binance withdraws its Greece MiCA bid and seeks another EU route; Latvia is named among regulators it approached, as the July 1 licensing deadline nears. Aviation Spotlight: Riga International Airport wins ACI Europe’s “Best Airport” award in the 5–10 million passenger category. Foreign Policy & Education: Latvia’s FM Baiba Braže visits Cambridge to discuss geopolitics and closer ties.

Latvia’s Security Posture: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may escalate with hybrid provocations—drones, missiles, cyber and covert actions—aimed at pressuring NATO’s eastern flank to stop backing Ukraine. US–Baltic Military Readiness: The US Navy is building logistics and landing infrastructure in Latvia for BALTOPS 2026, including ramps and temporary Arctic facilities, as officials flag growing Russian risk. EU Defence Finance: Latvia is set to benefit from a €3.5bn EU SAFE defence loan focused on drone development. Crypto Regulation in the EU: Binance says it will stay in Europe and seek a new MiCA authorization pathway after Greece rejected its licence bid; talks reportedly include Latvia, but officials remain cautious. Aviation & Connectivity: ACI EUROPE named Riga International Airport a category winner in Prague, while the EU funds Baltic Sea and Mediterranean “Regional Cable Hubs” to protect submarine cables. Road Safety: A Latvian survey finds 32% of drivers admit driving after drinking, with higher shares reporting driving above the legal limit.

Baltic Security Watch: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland to pressure NATO into easing support for Ukraine, stressing the risk of miscalculation and pointing to drones and other covert actions rather than a full conventional attack. Defense & Readiness: NATO’s Baltic Sea posture is being reinforced through exercises like Baltops 2026, with US Navy Seabees building rapid-deployment boat ramps in Liepāja to speed reinforcement and logistics in a crisis. EU Critical Infrastructure: The European Commission is funding Baltic and Mediterranean “Regional Cable Hubs” (€5.8m total) and launching a €40m call to expand submarine cable repair capacity, aiming to detect and respond faster to sabotage threats. Latvia-Linked Tech & War Industry: Latvia’s defense push also intersects with EU drone development financing, while broader reporting highlights Ukraine’s rapid scaling of unmanned systems as a model for European security integration. Fact-Checking & Info Integrity: A new fact-check debunks claims that the Baltics banned fish exports to Belarus, saying there was no such EU or Belarus ban and that Baltic shipments rose.

Latvia’s Defence Posture: NATO chief Mark Rutte met PM Andris Kulbergs in Brussels, pointing to a recent Russian drone incident over Latvia as proof of both Moscow’s “dangerous” tactics and NATO’s deterrence. Baltic Security & Infrastructure: The EU is funding €40m to strengthen submarine cable repair capacity and creating Baltic Sea and Mediterranean hubs, with Latvia among the participating countries—aimed at faster detection and response to sabotage. Air Defence Upgrades (Region): Estonia received the first IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defence components from Diehl, boosting its ability to counter drones and cruise missiles at longer ranges. Ukraine War Diplomacy: Pakistan urged the UN Security Council to restart dialogue and push for an immediate ceasefire, with Latvia among the supporters of the Ukraine-focused meeting. Hybrid Threat Warning: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations (drones, missiles, other actions) against the Baltics or Poland to pressure NATO to stop supporting Ukraine. EU Defence Finance (Latvia): Latvia signed a €3.5bn EU defence loan under the SAFE programme for drone technology development. Public IT & Media Oversight: Latvia launched a public platform for real-time monitoring of political radio ads.

Latvia’s security posture: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may stage hybrid provocations against the Baltic states or Poland—using drones, missiles and other “signals” to pressure NATO to stop supporting Ukraine—raising fears of miscalculation. NATO in the spotlight: NATO chief Mark Rutte met Latvia’s PM Andris Kulbergs in Brussels ahead of the Ankara summit, pointing to the recent Baltic Air Policing drone incident as proof of deterrence and defence readiness. Air defence upgrades: Estonia took delivery of its first German IRIS-T medium-range air defence system, a move seen as a major leap for Baltic protection; Latvia’s own drone-defence cooperation with Ukraine is also in focus, with Latvia signing a 10-year drone agreement while Estonia reportedly delayed. Public transparency in politics: Latvian startup Spotwise launched a free platform to track political radio ads in real time, aiming to pull Latvia’s radio campaign “black box” into public view. EU energy transition debate: Eastern and Central European governments, including Latvia, urged the EU to strengthen the ETS modernisation fund for poorer members as the Commission prepares its post-2030 carbon-market overhaul. Regional context: A Riga-based Russian journalist, Grigory Nekhoroshev—who exposed Putin’s alleged secret affair—was found dead after reportedly eating poisonous mushrooms.

EU Defence Finance: Latvia signed a nearly €3.5bn EU SAFE defence loan to speed up drones, guided missiles and anti-drone systems, with procurement speed and deterrence on the eastern flank front and centre. Counter-Drone Cooperation: Latvia also signed a broader 10-year “drone agreement” with Ukraine in Tallinn, while Estonia reportedly held back over missing preliminary details and readiness concerns. Baltic Security Watch: Latvian intelligence warns Russia may use hybrid provocations—drones and other actions—to pressure NATO states to stop backing Ukraine. Air Defence Upgrade: Estonia took delivery of its first German IRIS-T medium-range system, a major step up from short-range coverage. Political Transparency: Latvia launched a public platform to monitor political radio ads in real time, aiming to make radio campaigning less of a “black box.” UN Diplomacy & Civilian Cost: A UN senior official urged the Security Council to restart efforts for a full Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, citing ongoing mass civilian harm. Democracy & Civic Life: Latvia’s FK Cēsis media director Karīna Martinova was selected to represent the country at a Council of Europe democracy hackathon focused on fighting hate speech.